Probably means that is it more likely to happen. What is likely to be done.
For example, “It’s probably going to rain today because the sky looks gloomy.” Stating that most likely going to rain, but you are not guaranteeing that it is going to rain.
Possibility means more of a chance type of thing, it goes 50/50. When you use ‘possibly,’ it simply means that you are not sure.
For example, “He’s possibly just ignoring you.” Showing the he could be ignoring you, but the person stating this isn’t quite sure.
Does this make sense?