Well, I would say you are right about the translation!
I believe you. 我相信你
Here believe is translated as 相信, believe someone, is translated as 相信.
I believe in miracles. 我相信奇迹
I think believe in is always translated as 相信, no matter what you are believing in.
As for 认为,
I believe that we will win. 我认为我们会赢.
Here is a bit confusing, you can translate believe as 相信, to me, which adds the feeling that we will definitely 100% win!
If you translate it as 认为, I feels that we might lose, but most likely we are gonna win, but there is an uncertainty.
To me, 相信 is more certain than 认为.