Both words fit grammatically. Both are good English. Both have a clear meaning, and the meanings are similar. In my opinion, this is a subject matter question, not an English question.
I like "probability" better. The reason is that reinforcement theory is intended to be mathematical and statistical, and it is easier to measure a "probability" than a "tendency."
It is likely that "reinforcer" actually has an established definition in the psychology of operant condition. Maybe it is defined in psychology textbooks. Maybe someone taking the exam is expected to know it.
I did a quick web search for "reinforcer" and I found examples of language saying it increases the "probability," the "likelihood," and the "frequency" of the behavior.